Accuracy · paused
Forecast accuracy.
We have paused the figure for how often a call held up. The figure counted a call as held up when the wind and swell that arrived matched the forecast, read from a weather buoy out at sea and not from the beach. Before it is used to judge anything, three things have to be written down: what a call is, what held up means, and what it is graded against.
It comes back with a short method note, a plain test of a naive forecast beside it, and a record kept for the new engine. Until then no figure is published.
What counts as a hit
- Wind speed
- Within 5 km/h or 25% of what was observed, whichever is larger. Equal counts as a hit.
- Wind direction
- Within 45° of the published direction, one compass sector.
- Swell
- Within 0.3 m, when both the forecast and the buoy have a value.
- A cycle
- Hits only when every available input passes. A rate is claimed only past 20 joined cycles.
These are grading rules v2.0.0, fixed in code before results are shown. Changing them after seeing a rate starts a new series (a version bump), not a quieter page. How the calls work: the method. Privacy: nothing derived from presence.
PUBLIC DATA ONLY
The buoy grades the call.
We never ask you to disclose where you fished. Accuracy comes from weather we already published versus weather that actually arrived.